Incrementality Testing

Incrementality Testing — Measure What Your Ads Actually Cause, Not Just Correlate With

Standard attribution credits every touchpoint a customer encountered — but correlation is not causation. Incrementality testing measures what would have happened without your ads. We design and execute ghost ad tests, geo holdouts and matched market experiments that reveal your advertising's true incremental impact.

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Ghost Ad TestsGeo HoldoutsMatched MarketsMeta IncrementalityTikTok LiftTrue ROASCausal MeasurementMedia MixAttribution ValidationBrand Search LiftiROASBudget DecisionsGhost Ad TestsGeo HoldoutsMatched MarketsMeta IncrementalityTikTok LiftTrue ROASCausal MeasurementMedia MixAttribution ValidationBrand Search LiftiROASBudget Decisions
INCREMENTALITY

True Advertising ROI: What Lifts Revenue, Not What Takes Credit

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Ghost Ad Testing
Meta and TikTok ghost ad (conversion lift) tests — splitting audiences into exposed and holdout groups to measure incremental conversions attributable to campaigns.
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Geo Holdout Tests
Geographic holdout experiments — running campaigns in test markets while holding out matched markets — measuring incremental revenue lift at the market level.
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Matched Market Analysis
Statistical matched market design — identifying control markets with similar baseline characteristics to enable clean incremental measurement.
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Meta Conversion Lift Studies
Native Meta Conversion Lift study design and execution — leveraging Meta's own holdout infrastructure for statistically valid incrementality measurement.
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iROAS Calculation
Incremental ROAS (iROAS) calculation — true revenue per £ of media spend after removing organic baseline and other channel attribution overlap.
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Attribution Reconciliation
Comparison of incrementality test results against attribution model reporting — calibrating your attribution model to better reflect true incremental impact.

Frequently Asked Questions

Incrementality testing measures the causal effect of advertising by comparing outcomes for groups exposed to ads versus matched holdout groups not exposed. Unlike attribution (which measures correlation), incrementality measures causation — the actual lift in revenue, purchases or customers that your advertising created.

Last-click attribution gives 100% credit to the final touchpoint before conversion — typically branded search or direct. This systematically under-credits prospecting channels (Meta, TikTok) that initiated the journey and over-credits retargeting, which often captures customers who would have converted organically.

Most incrementality tests require 2–4 weeks to achieve statistical significance — longer for campaigns with lower conversion volumes. Geo holdout tests for brand advertising may run 4–8 weeks. We calculate required test duration based on your baseline conversion rate and desired confidence level.

Incremental ROAS (iROAS) is the revenue generated per pound of advertising spend that would NOT have occurred without the advertising. It differs from reported ROAS by removing organic conversions that would have happened regardless of the ad. iROAS is the true measure of advertising's financial contribution.

Meta Conversion Lift tests require sufficient conversion volume to achieve statistical significance — typically £5,000–£20,000 in spend during the test period depending on conversion rate. Geo holdout tests require sufficient market-level revenue data to detect meaningful lifts.

SCALE

Measure What Your Advertising Actually Causes

Book a free incrementality testing session and design your first causal measurement experiment.

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